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A ‘Free Bet if Lose Offer’ is where the bookmaker gives you a free bet if your qualifying bet loses.
In the matched betting community this type of offer can also be referred to as a ‘Risk Free Bet Offer’ or ‘Free Bet Refund Offer’.
There are two approaches to doing a Free Bet if Lose Offer.
The first method is the Guaranteed Profit Method, which ensures we make a profit no matter what happens. This approach requires the Oddsmonkey Risk-Free Equal Profit Calculator. (If you don’t have Oddsmonkey yet you can try it here for just £1).
The second method is a Potential Profit Method that uses a version of the Bet & Get offer approach. Here we will either end with just the small loss (usually 60p or less) from our Qualifying Bet, or we end in profit IF we get a free bet and do a Profit Bet.
We outline both approaches below.
In this section we explain how to use your Oddsmonkey Risk Free Equal Profit Calculator to extract a profit regardless of the outcome of the Qualifying Bet.
This is our recommended approach for this type of offer so that you can keep building your profits consistently.
In short, by using this calculator you will be under-laying your initial qualifying bet at the bookmaker.
What does this mean?
Quite simply, it means that if your qualifying bet wins at the bookmaker, you will automatically be in profit.
If it loses then you will be slightly down at Smarkets, but then make your profit from using the free bet that will then be credited by the bookmaker.
The term under-laying basically means ‘using a lay stake less than what you normally would for a standard Qualifying Bet’. The Oddsmonkey Risk Free Equal Profit Calculator works out exactly what under-lay stake you should use in order to end up with the same profit no matter if the Qualifying Bet wins or loses at the bookmaker.
Here we will use Genting’s welcome offer as an example of how to complete one of these offers.
Genting offer a £10 free bet if your first £10 bet loses (see the full Genting Bet guide here)
HOT TIP: When doing our qualifying bet for a ‘free bet if loses’ offer we want to use higher odds, preferably above 6.0. How high odds you can use will depend on how much balance you have available in Smarkets to cover your liability.
To find a bet above 6.0 easily and quickly use the Oddsmonkey Oddsmatcher (otherwise check our Potential Bet Selections blog or ask in the Facebook Group for help).
After you’ve found a good bet you now need the Oddsmonkey Risk Free Equal Profit Calculator.
On Oddsmonkey to reach the calculator you need to go to Tools > Calculators > Risk Free Equal Profit Calculator.
Understanding the calculator.
INPUTS in the ‘Enter Bet Details’ Section:
1. This is the back stake amount at the bookmaker for the first (qualifying) bet. In this example it is £10.
2. The back odds at the bookmaker (here they are 7.0)
3. The lay odds at Smarkets (here they are 7.2)
4. Commission at the exchange. Smarkets standard commission is 2%.
5. This is the amount of the free bet the bookmaker will give you if your bet loses. In this example Genting are offering a £10 free bet if our bet loses.
6. When we use a standard free bet with the Profit (Free) Bet calculator we tend to aim to extract between 70-80% of the free bet as profit. For newbies we recommend to set this as 75% initially but in the future you might increase this to 80% as you get more experienced.
OUTPUTS in the ‘Ideal Lay’ Section:
7. The calculator works out what lay stake amount you need to use at Smarkets in order to ensure you get roughly an equal profit no matter what happens. (Remember to check you have enough balance in Smarkets to cover the liability of the lay stake).
OUTPUTS in the ‘Profit Breakdown’ Section:
8. What happens if the Qualifying Bet wins at the bookmaker?
If the £10 qualifying bet wins, we will make £60 at the bookmaker (£10 stake x 7.0 = £70 minus the £10 stake = £60).
As we have under-layed at Smarkets, only £53.94 will leave our Smarkets account (the liability).
So, plus £60 at the bookmaker minus £53.94 liability at Smarkets leaves us £6.06 in profit.
Due to our bookmaker bet winning, the offer is now complete with us £6.06 up.
9. What happens if the Qualifying Bet loses at the bookmaker?
At the bookmaker, we will be £10 down as our bet lost.
As we under-layed this bet, we only make £8.53 at Smarkets (this is our ‘Ideal Lay Stake’ of £8.70 minus Smarkets’ 2% commission).
As it stands (without the free bet being credited), we are then -£1.47 down. (-£10 at the bookmaker plus our £8.53 at Smarkets).
Now though, as we have lost the bookmaker will credit us with a £10 free bet.
We then use this free bet in the normal way using our Profit (Free) Bet Calculator. We need to aim to extract at least 75% of the free bet as profit.
If we successfully extract 75% of our free bet, we will make £7.50.
£7.50 profit minus our initial £1.47 loss = £6.03 profit overall.
So, if our qualifying bet loses, we will still end up making just over £6 in profit thanks to the free bet.
To sum up, by using this Oddsmonkey risk-free equal profit calculator, we make £6+ from this offer regardless of whether our initial bet wins or loses.
And this is why we prefer this method! Guaranteed profit!
With this approach you do the Free Bet if Loses Offer in almost the same way you would do a Bet & Get offer, but just hope the Qualifying Bet loses at the bookmaker.
The only difference with this method is that we would place the initial Qualifying Bet on higher odds (5.0 or above) to increase your chances of the bet losing at the bookmaker so that the free bet is released.
If the Qualifying Bet loses at the bookmaker:
You will initially be down by a small qualifying loss (as you would with a Bet & Get Offer).
As the bet has lost the bookmaker will then release a free bet to you which you then complete using the standard approach with the Profit (Free) Bet Calculator to extract a profit.
Overall you will end in profit (small qualifying loss plus the profit from the free bet).
If the Qualifying Bet wins at the bookmaker:
You will down only by the small qualifying loss you incurred from the Qualifying Bet.
No free bet will be released.
You can ONLY make profit using this apporach if the Qualifying Bet loses at the bookmaker.
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